Meet the People Behind Donald Trumps Popularity

Many were shocked by Donald Trumps rise to prominence through the 2016 Republican primaries, and even more so by his win of the presidency. Simultaneously, many were thrilled by it. Who are the people behind Trumps success? Throughout the 2016 primary season, Pew Research Center regularly surveyed voters, Republican and Democrat  alike, and produced a series of illuminating reports on demographic trends among supporters of particular candidates, and on the values, beliefs, and fears that drive their political decisions. Lets take a look at this data, which provides an in-depth look at the people behind Donald Trumps popularity. More Men Than Women Through the primaries and as the Republican nominee, Trump was more popular among men than women. Pew found in January 2016 that men among Republican voters had more confidence in Donald Trump than did women, and they found that men supported him more than women when they surveyed voters in March 2016. Once Trump and Clinton officially faced off in the general election, the greater appeal of Trump to men became even more clear, with just 35 percent of women voters aligning with him. More Old Than Young Throughout his campaign, Trump was consistently more popular among older voters than among younger ones. Pew found in January 2016 that Trumps ratings among Republican voters were highest with those  40 years and older, and this trend held true as more voters switched to supporting him in March 2016. Pew also found in their study conducted in April and May 2016 that warmth toward Trump increased with age, and coldness toward him decreased. A full 45 percent of Republicans aged 18 to 29 felt coldly toward Trump, while just 37 percent felt warmly toward him.  Conversely, 49 percent of those aged 30 to 49 felt warmly toward him and 60 percent of those aged 50 to 64 did, as did 56 percent of those over 65 years of age. And according to Pews data, in a face-off with Hillary Clinton, Trump was expected to capture just 30 percent of the vote among those 18 to 29 years of age. The proportion of those who preferred Trump to Clinton increased with each age bracket, but it wasnt until voters passed 65 years of age that Trump got the advantage.   Less Rather Than More Education Trumps popularity was also consistently greater among those with lower levels of formal education. Back in the primary season, when Pew surveyed Republican voters and asked them which candidates they preferred, Trumps ratings were highest among those who had not attained a college degree. This trend remained consistent when Pew surveyed Republican voters again in March 2016  and revealed that  his popularity was highest among those whose highest degree was a high school diploma. This trend bears out in an examination of supporters of Trump versus Clinton as well, with Clinton far more popular among those with higher levels of education. Lower Income Free Trade Trumps greater appeal to those with less rather than more household income is unsurprising, given the statistical relationship between education and income. While he was still competing against other Republican candidates in the primaries, Pew found in March 2016 that Trump was  more popular among voters with  lower income  levels than among those with higher levels. At that time, his popularity was greatest among those whose household income was below $30,000 per year. This trend gave Trump an edge in the primaries, and perhaps over Clinton as well, because there are more citizens living at, around, or below that income level than there are those who live on higher incomes. As compared with those who supported Clinton, Trump supporters are more likely to report that their household income is falling behind the cost of living  (61 versus 47 percent). Even across income brackets for supporters of both candidates, Trump supporters were more likely to report this, outweighing Clinton supporters by 15 percentage points among those whose household income is $30,000 or less, eight points among those in the $30,000 to $74,999 bracket, and by 21 points among those with a household income above $75,000. Perhaps connected to the correlation between household income and support for Trump is the fact that his supporters were  more likely than other Republican voters in March-April 2016 to say that free trade agreements have hurt their personal finances, and the majority (67 percent) say that free trade agreements have been bad for the U.S. Thats a figure that was 14 points higher than the average Republican voter during the primaries. White People and Acculturated Hispanics Pew found in a June 2016 survey of both Republican and Democratic voters that Trumps popularity lies primarily in white people — half of whom supported Trump, while just seven percent of black voters supported him. He was more popular among Hispanic voters than among blacks, capturing the support of about a quarter of them. Interestingly, Pew found though that support for Trump among Hispanics came primarily from English-dominant voters.  In fact,  the  English-dominant  Hispanic electorate was closely split between Clinton and Trump, at 48 percent for Clinton, and 41 for Trump.  Among bilingual or Spanish-dominant Hispanics, 80 percent intended to vote for Clinton and just 11 percent indicated they would choose Trump. This signals a relationship between ones level of acculturation — the adoption of the dominant, mainstream culture — and voter preference. It likely also signals a positive relationship between the number of generations an immigrant family has been in the U.S. and preference for Trump. Atheists and Evangelicals When Pew surveyed Republican voters in March 2016, they found that  Trumps popularity was greatest among those who are not religious, and among those who are religious but do not regularly attend religious services. At that time, he also led his opponents among those who are religious. Curiously, Trump is especially popular  among white evangelical Christians, who overwhelmingly believed that he would do a far better job than Clinton on every issue. Racial Diversity, Immigration, and Muslims As compared with those who supported other Republican candidates during the primaries,  Trump supporters were more likely to believe that greater scrutiny of Muslims living in the U.S. would make the country safer. Specifically, a Pew survey conducted in March 2016 found that Trump supporters were more likely than those who supported other candidates to believe that Muslims should be subjected to greater scrutiny than other religious groups as a method of preventing terrorism  and that Islam  is more likely than other religions to encourage violence. At the same time, the survey of Republican voters found a strong and consistent anti-immigrant sentiment among Trump supporters. Those who backed him in March 2016 were only half as likely as other Republican voters to  say immigrants strengthen the country, and they were far more likely to favor building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border (84 percent versus 56 percent among other Republican voters). As one can deduce from these findings, the majority of Trump supporters view immigrants as a burden to the country, see them as a threat to U.S. values,  and favor the expulsion of undocumented immigrants. Consistent with these findings, Pews April-May 2016 survey also found that the heavily older, white male fanbase of Trump believed that the growing racial diversity of the nation, which will make the population a majority of racial minorities, is bad for the country. Trump Will Make America Great Again Trump supporters have high expectation for their candidate. A Pew survey conducted between June and July 2016 found that the majority of Trump supporters believed that as a president he would make the immigration situation a lot better, and even more believed that he would improve it a little. Together, that means 86 percent of Trumps supporters believed that his policies would improve immigration (presumably by lessening it). They also overwhelmingly believed that a Trump presidency would make the U.S. safer from terrorism and improve the economy. But They Do Not Actually Like Him Fewer than half of Trump supporters ascribed any positive traits to their chosen candidate, according to a June-July 2016 Pew survey. Very few consider him well-informed or admirable. Only a minority expected that he would be willing to work with those he disagrees with, that he could unite the country, and that he is honest. They  did,  however, feel that he has deeply-held  beliefs  and that he is extreme. The Big Picture This set of facts, culled from a series of surveys conducted by one of the U.S.s most respected public opinion research centers, leaves us with a clear picture of those behind Trumps rise to political prominence. They are primarily white, older men with low levels of education and income. They believe that immigrants and free trade deals have harmed their earning power (and theyre right about the free trade deals), and they prefer an America in which white people are the majority. Trumps worldview and platform ​seem to resonate with them. Yet, following the election, exit poll data shows that Trumps appeal was far broader than polling and voting during the primaries suggested. He captured the votes of the vast majority of white people, regardless of age, class, or gender. This racial  division in the electorate further played out in the ten days following the election, when a surge of hate crimes, fueled by an embrace of Trumps rhetoric, swept the nation. Sources Doherty, Carroll. A Wider Ideological Gap Between More and Less Educated Adults. Pew Research Center, April 26, 2016. January 2016 Political Survey. Pew Research Center, January 7-14, 2016. June 2016 Voter Attitudes Survey. Pew Research Center. March 2016 Political Survey. Pew Research Center, March 17-26, 2016.